Ojal J, Brand SPC, Were V, Okiro EA, Kombe IK, Mburu C, Aziza R, Ogero M, Agweyu A, Warimwe GM, Uyoga S, Adetifa IMO, Scott JAG, Otieno E, Ochola-Oyier LI, Agoti CN, Kasera K, Amoth P, Mwangangi M, Aman R, Ng'ang'a W, Tsofa B, Bejon P, Barasa E, Keeling MJ, Nokes DJ
Wellcome Open Res. 2021;6
Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.
